India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, describing it as "a big step" in efforts to increase global pressure on Moscow.
Lavrov said that the US has set itself the objective of 'achieving economic domination', adding further to it that Americans want to control the routes to leading countries to provide its energy sources to them.
India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
Reliance Industries Ltd has consistently remained compliant with international sanctions and is expected to adhere to upcoming measures on Russian oil, analysts said, estimating that oil sourced from Russia contributes just 2.1 per cent to its consolidated EBITDA. Reliance operates the world's largest single location refining complex, with more than half of the capacity exclusively dedicated for exports.
An influential US lawmaker claims his visit to India helped catalyze "early signals" that New Delhi may reduce its imports of Russian oil, a step he described as "meaningful" in weakening Moscow's ability to fund its war in Ukraine.
Using an expletive in his post on X, Navarro said, "Fact: India didn't buy Russian oil in large quantities before Russia invaded Ukraine. It's blood money and people are dying."
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth 49 billion euros from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump said in a social media post on Monday.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday slapped an additional 25 per cent tariff on goods coming from India as penalty for New Delhi's continued buying of Russian oil.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that the Trump administration hopes it can fix the "measures" it has taken with regard to India for its purchases of Russian oil.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, spent 112.5 billion euro (about Rs 1.5 lakh crore) on buying crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said on Thursday. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) released a report on payments to Russia for fossil fuels since February 24, 2022. "According to our estimates, since the beginning of the war, Russia earned EUR 835 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports," it said.
India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil is heading to India, marking the resumption of oil imports from Iran after seven years.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
Trump's post on Truth Social comes a day after the US asked G7 countries to impose tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Russia.
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
On Friday, during the weekly media briefing, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, when asked about media reports that some Indian oil companies have stopped taking oil from Russia, had said India has made clear its approach on the issue.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that long-term oil supplies are 'abundant' and there are no worries regarding that, but in the short term, there is a need to get oil on the market.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
India responds to US President Trump's claim that PM Modi assured him of halting Russian oil imports, stating it is diversifying energy sources to meet market conditions and safeguard consumer interests.
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
"We do not think India should accelerate or increase imports of Russian energy and other commodities even as, obviously, those decisions are made by individual countries," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at her daily news conference.
'America is adopting the typical 'my way or the highway'/'Either you are with us or against us' stance.' 'This is a policy India is not going to accept.'
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
Indian refiners have access to only limited Iranian volumes compared with Russian oil, and even the barrels on offer come with 'too many hassles'.
'Every year we import approximately $70 billion worth of gold -- closer to $72 billion in 2025-2026, an all-time record.' 'There is no parallel for this anywhere in the world. And this love for gold will not disappear overnight.'
The US has temporarily permitted India to accept Russian oil already on ships to ensure energy supplies amid the conflict with Iran. This short-term measure is not expected to significantly benefit Russia financially.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd is estimated to have earned 724 million euros (about Rs 6,850 crore) from exporting fuel made from Russian crude oil to the US in one year, an European think tank said in a report. "From January 2024 to the end of January 2025, the US imported EUR 2.8 billion of refined oil from six refineries in India and Turkey that process Russian crude.
Savings for Indian refiners from purchasing Russian oil have decreased to a third of what they were in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global crises, sanctions, and discounted Russian oil seeking buyers. Despite this, savings from importing cheap Russian oil were significant enough to help Indian refiners tide over frozen petrol and diesel pump prices.
India will maintain multiple sources for crude oil purchases and diversify them to ensure stability in the supply chain with national interests remaining the "guiding factor" for the procurement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Gor underlined that President Trump has a "deep friendship" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and that is something that is unique.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict and its impact on energy supplies with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and EU's Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Amidst the ongoing conflict in West Asia, the Oil Ministry assures citizens that India's LPG supply remains secure, with no need for panic booking of cylinders. The normal delivery cycle of two-and-a-half days is being maintained, and crude oil is being sourced from diverse routes.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
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